How Long Should Your Pandemic Preps Last? Answers vary.

Interesting day, today. I had a letter to the editor published in the News and Observer newspaper. They even added a nice graphic -- an egg-shaped earth wearing a surgical mask.

One problem: The editor of the Letters to the Editor page added a few words in parentheses that changes the meaning of my entire message and makes it look as if I wrote the words! Very frustrating.

I wrote, "According to a May 27 article in The N&O, North Carolina state government is requesting that all citizens stock food, water and medication..."

The editor added these words in parentheses that I put in italics and bold here: "According to a May 27 article in The N&O, North Carolina state government is requesting that [at the first sign of a pandemic in the state] all citizens stock food, water and medication..."

I also stated that Michael Osterholm, infectious disease expert, told Oprah Winfrey in January that we all need to prepare NOW so that our food and medication lasts five to six weeks and that in a News & Observer article about North Carolina preparedness, our state government recommends two weeks.

My point was that experts believe a pandemic flu will arrive in multiple waves, with each wave lasting two to three months, it is logical to prepare for a period lasting as long as six months or more because the pandemic may arrive in waves. But the parenthetical addition wrecks defeats me whole message.

I never said "at the fist sign of a pandemic in the state." That's FAR TOO LATE by that time. Anyone who has ever expected a dusting of snow in a Southern state knows that all the food and milk on store shelves are GONE very quickly. And that's a dusting of snow, not even a snowstorm!

Imagine what will happen when the headline says that the first person in North America has died of an easily transmittable human virus that mutated from the bird flu virus?

To confirm the state’s stance, I called the North Carolina state government and spoke with Chrissy Simeonsson, an epidimiologist in communicable diseases in the Division of Public Health.

Chrissy said there is no "good science" involved in the recommendation of two weeks or any length of time. She says that until the pandemic happens, there is no way to tell if it will be a mild or severe pandemic, or if there will be any pandemic at all. She said that speaking for herself, a two-week supply of emergency preparations would be the minimum. She personally does not know when a good time to start to prepare would be, but (personally) agrees that “at the first sign a pandemic hits the state” would be too late.

Until recently, the federal government refused to list a specific time for which you should prepare. (See my earlier post.) However, as Ms. Simeonsson alerted me today, the federal government finally stated a time period -- two weeks. See: http://www.pandemicflu.gov/planguide/checklist.html

I called the newspaper and as of mid-afternoon, I have heard no response.

The reality is this:

• The U.S. (specifically, its citizens) continue to be woefully unprepared for any pandemic.
  
  
• The media isn’t doing enough to spread the word, or more important, to question government policies on pandemic preparation.
  
  
• The media is not questioning why the state government is saying to "prepare when pandemic hits the state" and why the federal government is saying, "You can prepare for an influenza pandemic now."

Should we prepare now or not? How long should our preparations last? Why two weeks if two weeks makes such little sense?

Why can't the government and the media make sense of this and present it in such a way that citizens can be effectively prepared?

ABC Bird Flu Movie - Will it be enough to push people to prep?

Will "Fatal Contact: Bird Flu in America" convince anyone to prepare for a possible pandemic?

I doubt it. Oprah's show on the bird flu didn't. The government's recommendation (albeit incomplete recommendation) didn't.

Will America see the movie as just one more disaster movie during sweeps month? I hope not.

Our local ABC station had a representative from the state health department to answer questions in a bulletin forum on the station web site. The moderator said they were overwhelmed with questions and to go to the state health web site for more information.

There was no new information for me in the movie. It was as if all the basic information we've known for months, that it seemed that no one else was listening to, was presented, especially in the first ten minutes of the film. That's a good thing.

The movie missed on two points, I think:

• The military will probably not quarantine neighborhoods. They simply would not have the manpower to do. Logistically, it would be impossible for them to quarantine and then provide provisions to an entire neighborhood. The military would have other tasks to perform.
  
  
• The movie made it sound as if there was no way to escape. There is -- isolation. If people prepare to be isolated, and by that, I mean stockpiling enough food, water, and medication to last for several months (as much as a family could afford, to six months and beyond), then a family could escape the virus.

As the movie showed, some deaths are not caused by the bird flu virus, but by not preparing: the governor's son dies because he doesn't have enough insulin, the elderly woman is near death by starvation because she didn't stockpile food. Those types of deaths can be prevented by stockpiling.

The movie also showed that not everyone will die and that life goes on, and we must all take joy in spending time with those we love. So true.

So, go to http://www.birdfluprep.com and read, read, read. Start with the slide programs in the left column. Then go shopping.

Don't panic. Prepare.

BirdFluLady

U.S. Tells Citizens to Stockpile, But Refuses To Say For How Long

It makes absolutely no sense. Their position will result in more deaths.

The U.S. government has told its citizens via its web site, http://www.pandemicflu.gov and through 44 visits by Health and Human Secretary Michael Leavitt throughout the country, to prepare for a possible pandemic.

But the federal government refuses to say how many provisions a citizen should stockpile. They refuse to say whether preparing to live isolated for three days, three weeks, three months, or six months is a reasonable amount of time in the event of a pandemic.

It is obvious to me that such isolation would help you to avoid infection and would help you avoid starvation when illness affects the food distribution channels, leaving nothing on grocery shelves.

I called the HHS department in Washington, DC, yesterday (April 27, 2006) and left a message with my question about why the government was not making a recommendation. A department secretary returned my call and asked not to be quoted by name.

The secretary said the federal government relies on solid data before they make recommendations, and they do not have the data to make a recommendation on length of time for which you should prepare. She said they did not know when they would have the data or when they would ever make such a recommendation.

She said the government wants to be sure there is "continuity." She said that if they can encourage workers to continue to provide goods and services, then people won't have to stockpile as much. Plus, she said, it isn't fair to poor people to ask them to prepare for six months when there is no way that they could ever do that. "We need to think about ALL Americans," she said.

She also said that the pandemic could be hitting 5,000 different places at different times all over the United States, so you can't say that you need to be isolated for a certain time at a certain place.

My Opinion:

ARE THEY OUT OF THEIR MINDS?

They are telling us to "prepare" but with absolutely no answer to the question, "How much?" it's like not telling us ANYTHING. The government is giving us nearly useless information.

The reality is that if a pandemic strikes, the majority of people will stay home to:

a) avoid infection
b) take care of their families to avoid having them become infected
c) take care of sick family members.

That is just human nature. Plus, schools will be closed, and someone must feed and watch those children. Daycares should also be closed to avoid the spread of infection.

The government SHOULD be telling its citizens that it should do all they can to try to stockpile for at least five months.

According to whatever data ABC News found for a Dateline special on the pandemic, the human pandemic would peak at 75 days. To me, that means there are 74 days to work up to it and 75 more days to wind down. That's five months. If it's in my area for five months, I want to be isolated for five months, at minimum. Six months is better.

If a family has stockpiled enough food for five months, workers in the family may be more likely to go into the workplace to help continue to provide the goods and services that the government wants them to continue to provide.

Those who can be isolated should be isolated. There are plenty of people who work at home, who are unemployed, stay-at-home parents, disabled, or who could take a break from their jobs if needed.

Those who must work may not be able to work in a pandemic. People who work in any field that may be affected by a pandemic (such as transportation, travel, entertainment, education, daycare, as just a few examples), will need to stay home.

Everyone needs to be told to stockpile food and medication, possibly water, NOW, to last at least five months. They should use it and replace it as needed to keep it fresh.

That is logical to me. Why isn't it logical to our government leaders?

As far as the government's belief that we cannot tell poor people to prepare because there is no way they can, that is ridiculous.

I say: Poor people aren't stupid. They will TRY to do what they need to do IF they know it needs to be done. Others may help them IF they KNOW exactly what needs to be done.

I don't believe every single poor person in New Orleans stayed in the city when Hurricane Katrina hit. The ones who could leave, I assume, did leave.

In a slide program I developed, I show how a family of four can live on rice and beans for $11.53 (total) a week. That's $272, total, for six months. The slide program is here: http://www.birdflupreparation.com/preptips.html See slide #18 and #19 specifically.

Rice and beans aren't a lot of fun to eat week after week. But it would keep anyone from starvation. They can start out with stockpiling rice and beans and add canned meat, vegetables, and fruit as they are able.

It is no secret that the current government administration has made many errors in the last few years. If the pandemic occurs, this error of omission will be one more error that will result in many, many deaths.

This scenario -- that the pandemic strikes, and that people stay home to starve because they failed to stockpile enough for five months -- can be avoided. People can prepare.

What You Can Do

You can:

1. Stockpile food, water, and medications for your family so that you have enough for five months. If you can, help others to stockpile.

2. Contact your government representatives and ask that the government stop playing games and be straight with the American people. Encourage them to encourage the administration to educate the general population about pandemic planning, including making recommendations for preparing for at least five months of isolation.

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Bird Flu Preparation

It makes me crazy what the government is NOT doing as far as bird flu preparation.

They are not being straight with the American people.

They are not prepared.

They are not educating the citizens as far as what the bird flu is all about. Yes, the documents exist on their web sites. But it's a lot of information to go through. They need to be clear and concise. That's why I created BirdFluPreparation.com. It gives a lot of links to the important sites.

I also created a presentation, Straight Talk About Bird Flu Preparation. You can find it here: http://www.birdflupreparation.com/presentation.html

It's probably the most honest collection of information you'll find anywhere at this point.

Mrs Bird Flu